Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The test of 1.0440 in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to rise from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point. However, based on the chart, the upward movement was limited.

Producer price growth in Germany has slowed, signaling reduced inflationary pressure in Europe's largest economy. This could allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to proceed with further rate cuts. The decline in energy prices was a primary factor in easing inflation. While electricity, natural gas, and oil product prices continued rising, they did so at a slower pace than in previous months. This provided a positive effect on overall inflation, although producer prices remain historically high. Inflationary pressure persists, though it is gradually weakening. The future economic trajectory will depend on energy market trends and the effectiveness of ECB and government measures to stabilize the economy.

In the second half of the day, we await U.S. initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Given ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and unpredictable central bank policies, this relatively minor data set allows traders to focus on internal market dynamics. Jobless claims will serve as a barometer of U.S. economic resilience amid inflationary pressures. Any deviation from forecasts could trigger market volatility.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Index will provide insights into business sentiment in a key industrial region, acting as a leading indicator for national industrial output. A close analysis of these two reports will help assess the current state of the U.S. economy and predict its future development.

For intraday trading, I will primarily focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying EUR/USD is possible at 1.0456 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.0480. At 1.0480, I plan to exit long positions and sell EUR/USD in anticipation of a 30-35 point correction. Expecting further euro appreciation today depends on positive economic news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy EUR/USD if the pair tests 1.0430 twice, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. The expected targets will be 1.0456 and 1.0480.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling EUR/USD is advisable after reaching 1.0430 (red line on the chart), with a target at 1.0397. At 1.0397, I plan to exit short positions and buy the euro in anticipation of a 20-25 point correction. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell EUR/USD if the pair tests 1.0456 twice, while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expected targets will be 1.0430 and 1.0397.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line: Target for Take Profit (TP) or manual exit, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line: Target for Take Profit (TP) or manual exit, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Used for entry confirmation, considering overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

Beginner traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making trade entry decisions. Before major economic reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without risk management.

For successful trading, it is essential to follow a structured trading plan, like the one outlined above. Random trade decisions based on current market sentiment often result in losses, making it an ineffective strategy for intraday traders.