Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0506 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Shortly after, the second test of this level happened when the MACD was in the overbought zone, providing a reason to execute Scenario #2 for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 20 pips before demand returned.

February's disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data negatively impacted the dollar, pushing the euro higher. The decline in this index, which reflects U.S. consumers' willingness to spend to its lowest level in months, signals a potential slowdown in economic growth.

Today, the euro's uptrend could continue, but this will require strong data from the Eurozone. The German consumer climate index is expected, but forecasts suggest weak figures. If the data exceeds expectations, demand for the euro may return. Otherwise, pressure on the single currency will increase, leading to a decline toward key support levels. Investors will closely monitor any signs of economic improvement in the Eurozone, though concerns about recession and high inflation still dominate.

Overall, the short-term outlook for the euro remains uncertain. Much will depend on incoming economic data and investor sentiment. To make informed trading decisions, it is crucial to follow U.S. news, Trump's statements, and overall market conditions.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at 1.0511 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0554. At 1.0554, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip downward movement. However, a euro rally in the first half of the day will only be possible with very strong German economic data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro if the 1.0488 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside, with a possible move toward 1.0511 and 1.0554.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0488 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0455, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip retracement. Selling pressure will return if today's economic data is particularly weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if the 1.0511 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal, with possible targets at 1.0488 and 1.0455.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.