Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 148.85 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of 148.85 happened when the MACD was in the overbought area, confirming the correct entry point for scenario #2 on selling, which resulted in a 40-pip drop in the pair.

Despite U.S. consumer prices rising at the slowest pace in four months in February, this did not put significant pressure on the U.S. dollar.

The slowdown in inflation may give the Federal Reserve some breathing room as it considers whether to cut interest rates further this month or keep them unchanged. Lower inflation could also help American households, which are still struggling with high prices. If inflation remains low, households may increase spending, stimulating economic growth and, in the long term, support the dollar's strengthening against the yen.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 147.98 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 148.68 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.68, I plan to exit my buy trades and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 147.64 twice a row while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 147.98 and 148.68 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the price breaks below 147.64 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.09, where I plan to exit my sell trades and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level. Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 147.98 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 147.64 and 147.09 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.