Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, but they are unlikely to have significant implications. This week, a substantial amount of macroeconomic data has already been released, with minimal impact on the euro, pound, or dollar. The dollar continues to decline, seemingly driven by market panic and emotional expectations related to Donald Trump and U.S. foreign policy. Both currency pairs may begin to fall, but this would likely be a pullback within a strong overall uptrend.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The key event on Thursday is the European Central Bank meeting; however, it is doubtful that it will significantly affect market sentiment. The ECB is expected to lower key interest rates again, which should theoretically weaken the euro. Despite this, the market is currently influenced by other factors when making trading decisions. Although the ECB's dovish stance is clear, Trump's impact on the currency market is far more pronounced.

As a result, we might see some strengthening of the U.S. dollar today, but overall, market movements currently lack logical coherence. It remains uncertain how long the market will continue to panic-sell the dollar due to the actions of the U.S. president.

General Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs could move in any direction, as the market is being driven by emotions, with Donald Trump being the primary influence. For the euro, pound, and dollar, the focus is not so much on Trump's decisions but rather on how the market interprets them. At present, the market is interpreting these decisions negatively.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.