empty
27.03.2022 12:44 AM
JPMorgan advises to sell: Western analysts on Russia and other emerging markets

On Friday, JPMorgan analysts turned to Wall Street traders, focusing on recommendations to sell or "underestimate" the sovereign debt of emerging markets in national currency in connection with the global consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

JPMorgan advises selling: Western analysts on Russia and other emerging markets

This image is no longer relevant

JPMorgan estimates that fixed income assets in emerging markets have lost 6-9% of their value since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began a month ago. Nervousness about the war and its impact on world energy and food prices is not in vain, adding to the overall negative situation.

Now a number of leading central banks in developing countries are signaling that interest rates should rise faster than previously expected. And they are growing. However, this in turn increases concerns about the almost inevitable stagflation in this case, when high inflation and rising interest rates undermine economic growth on both sides.

"A month of war accelerated the existing trends and revealed vulnerabilities," JPMorgan analysts said in a note published on Thursday.

Analysts also spoke about other countries. They noted the increase in rates by the US Federal Reserve and central banks of developing countries: JPMorgan in this regard stated that "it makes sense to take advantage of the recent decline" in the yield of government bonds in national currency compared to US treasury bonds to enter a "lower weight" position in developing countries.

According to experts, major metal exporting countries such as South Africa, Chile and Peru may still do well, but fixed income assets in emerging markets as a whole are now facing a more "stagflationary" trajectory.

What Moscow called a "special military operation" in Ukraine also exacerbated an already slow start to the year for the sale of sovereign bonds of developing countries.

Total issuance since the beginning of the year is one of the lowest ever, so JPMorgan predicts that bond issuance in emerging markets will now be significantly lower than in previous years, and will amount to only $142 billion in 2022.

"This risk-averse environment has also increased the cost for those countries that are trying to issue hard currency bonds," the bank's analysts added.

Some countries that are most vulnerable to rising energy and food prices also have to apply "crisis" scenarios, which hinders the growth of consumption within these countries, forcing them to restrict imports from developing countries.

This was evident this week when Egypt devalued its currency by 15%, turning to the International Monetary Fund for additional support. Sri Lanka has also overcome long-standing resistance to IMF aid, and Tunisia is negotiating.

"As a result, the medium-term investment prospects for these countries look more challenging," JPMorgan said.

It seems that the dollar has also benefited from the global geopolitical situation this time, but this is not so good considering the growth of imports in the US trade balance.

Egor Danilov,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

¿Volverá el Bitcoin a los $90.000? Las esperanzas «alcistas» de la primera criptomoneda

El Bitcoin lucha actualmente por un lugar bajo el sol, defendiendo su estatus de primera criptomoneda. Actualmente, el activo estrella no pasa por su mejor momento, aunque muchos expertos

Larisa Kolesnikova 13:06 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Señales inquietantes: la mayor caída de precios en China y el Bitcoin se hundió hasta los $80 mil

Los futuros de Wall Street caen después de que Trump se negara a descartar riesgos de recesión Los precios de consumo chinos caen a un ritmo más rápido

07:29 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Estancamiento o crisis: Tesla cae, Nikkei marca un récord negativo, Dow y Nasdaq pierden posiciones

Tesla cae tras una opinión bajista de un bróker, según un informe. Kroger sube gracias a un optimista pronóstico anual de ventas. El índice japonés Nikkei cayó a su mínimo

11:36 2025-03-07 UTC+2

Trump vuelve a impulsar el crecimiento del BTC

El vertiginoso repunte de Bitcoin a principios de esta semana se debe a las declaraciones del presidente de EE. UU., Donald Trump, sobre la creación de una reserva de criptomonedas

Larisa Kolesnikova 07:32 2025-03-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin sin apuros: ¿Récords por delante?

Según observaciones de los analistas, actualmente Bitcoin se encuentra en un estado relativamente estable, pero no se apresura a actualizar sus máximos. En este contexto, los participantes del mercado muestran

Larisa Kolesnikova 08:36 2025-02-24 UTC+2

El sector tecnológico tambalea: el crecimiento de Analog Devices no salva la caída de Nikola

Nikola cae tras la solicitud de protección por quiebra. Analog Devices sube después de que los resultados del primer trimestre superaran las previsiones

12:05 2025-02-20 UTC+2

Gas, petróleo y sanciones: ¿quién es quién?

Sesión estadounidense: el gas sube, pero el petróleo no se queda atrás. Operadores, preparen las palomitas. Los futuros del gas natural subieron con fuerza el martes en la Bolsa Mercantil

Natalia Andreeva 11:24 2025-02-19 UTC+2

Trump no iba de farol: llegan los aranceles y el dólar ya reacciona con una subida

En la mañana del martes, la divisa estadounidense sigue mostrando un impulso alcista generalizado, ganando apoyo gracias a otra ronda de noticias sobre los aranceles del presidente estadounidense Donald Trump

Аlena Ivannitskaya 07:40 2025-02-11 UTC+2

¿Está el Bitcoin lejos de tocar fondo? Altibajos de la primera criptomoneda

El principal activo digital ha caído un poco en los últimos días, pero sigue manteniéndose a flote. El Bitcoin intenta recuperar el tiempo perdido y, según los analistas, lo consigue

Larisa Kolesnikova 09:30 2025-02-10 UTC+2

Futuros del gas y del petróleo: ¿qué está pasando en el mercado?

No todo es calma en el mercado energético. A partir de las últimas sesiones bursátiles, los futuros del gas natural subieron durante la sesión estadounidense del miércoles. El gas natural

Natalia Andreeva 12:04 2025-02-06 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.